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Elon Musk's tweet count: the weekly record

Every week Polymarket settles a market on how many times Elon Musk posts. We archive the official results so you can see the real distribution before you guess the next week.

Data updated September 12, 2026 · Source: resolved Polymarket bracket markets. A new data point lands after each weekly settlement.

Weeks tracked

100

Average week

~288 posts

Last 12 weeks

~117 posts

Busiest week

~900 (May 24, 2026)

Estimated posts per week

Each bar is the midpoint of the winning bracket for that week's market. Ranges, not exact counts.

Which months does Elon post the most?

Average estimated weekly posts by calendar month, across all tracked years. Two-plus years of data is a small sample—seasonality here is a hint, not a law.

What if you backed the same bracket every week?

We bucket every settled week into wide ranges. Hit rate = share of weeks landing in that range. The break-even price is the hit rate itself: buy below it often enough and the strategy is profitable.

Assumed avg. entry price0.20
BracketWeeks wonHit rateBreak-even priceROI at your price
<20040/10040.0%0.40+100%
200–2497/1007.0%0.07-65%
250–29915/10015.0%0.15-25%
300–3496/1006.0%0.06-70%
350–3995/1005.0%0.05-75%
400+27/10027.0%0.27+35%

Green = positive ROI at your assumed price. Backtested on settled market outcomes. Historical hit rates do not guarantee future ones.

This week on Polymarket

Implied probabilities for the currently trading bracket market.

Elon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?

40–64
99%
65–89
1%
90–114
0%
115–139
0%
140–164
0%
165–189
0%
190–214
0%
215–239
0%

Elon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?

<20 or fewer
0%
20–39
0%
40–59
0%
60–79
0%
80–99
0%
100–119
1%
120–139
7%
140–159
25%

Weekly history

WeekWinning bracketEst. posts
September 5, 2026 → September 9, 202640–64~52
September 1, 2026 → September 11, 2026160–179~170
August 31, 2026 → September 5, 202665–89~77
August 29, 2026 → September 8, 2026200–219~210
August 29, 2026 → September 2, 202640–64~52
August 27, 2026 → August 31, 202640–64~52
August 25, 2026 → September 4, 2026220–239~230
August 24, 2026 → August 29, 202640–64~52
August 22, 2026 → September 1, 2026160–179~170
August 20, 2026 → August 24, 202640–64~52
August 18, 2026 → August 28, 2026180–199~190
August 17, 2026 → August 22, 202690–114~102
August 15, 2026 → August 25, 2026320–339~330
August 15, 2026 → August 19, 202690–114~102
August 11, 2026 → August 21, 2026240–259~250
August 10, 2026 → August 15, 202640–64~52
August 8, 2026 → August 18, 2026160–179~170
August 6, 2026 → August 10, 202640–64~52
August 4, 2026 → August 14, 2026180–199~190
August 3, 2026 → August 8, 202640–64~52

Where this data comes from

Polymarket runs a weekly bracket market on @elonmusk's post count. When the week settles, exactly one bracket resolves to YES—that bracket is the official count range. We collect those results over time. The dataset is free, public, and updated after each settlement.

For research and education only. Not investment advice.